31.1.06

The UN consensus on Iran

You have to recognize the true nature of US international diplomacy, really hard work, day and night, to convince classmates to bully, harrass, punish whoever does not abide by their rules.
Now they have reached a consensus to report Iran to the UN security council. Ouf ! On time before the planned strikes for March, just to engage a little bit in, how they call it ? Oh, diplomacy of intimidation ! At least it got the word 'diplomacy' in it.

Of course there is the atomic agency which is due to report in March ! This is rather annoying but not too much. The atomic agency has no enforcment power and the US is convinced, even before the release of the agency report (the press reproted that theu tried to extract the report from El-Baradei, the agency's head, before March but he rebuffed the demand), that they will need to 'act' (understand strike) on the Iranian dossier.

Expect strikes to start as soon as possible, at the date of the non-official release of the atomic agency report (the official being on March 6), sometimes late february, beginning of March.

As Bush's approvals for a strike on Iran (without committing ground troops) are slightly above 50%, I bet he will take a chance. And I am quite confident that his ratings will improve steadily after. The american public likes a virtual war on CNN and it is been quite a while since they didn't have this kind of news-show. Protests against the Irak war and images of roadside bombs in Irak are really depressing, so lets have a merry show !

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Since March 29th 2006