Irak in civil war

In an editorial on his website, Dahr Jamail asks who benefits from the recent sectarian wars in Irak ?

I can tell you something: everybody benefits from Irak sinking into a civil war and this is precisely why Irak is already on the civil war path and will not achieve the bright future planned for it by the neo-cons.
In the first place, not being able to have full control on Irak, the US prefer this state of affair instead of seeing a prosperous Irak in the hands of Shiites (something which will reinforce Iran) and will eventually retreat with the excuse of the civil war. They have retreated before from the lebanese hell and they will retreat from this hell as well. Also, the bombing of the mosque occured during a week of new revelations on the abuse of Iraki prisoners and US prisoners in the war on terror. So the bombings may have been meant to divert the focus of the public and to break media momentum for the abuse story. US satellite states in the region (Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and UAE) are all sunnis, they fear a pacified and a strong shiite Irak.
Second, Israel benefits a lot from a civil war in Irak because it will stay the only ally on which the US can count for maintaining a continuous pressure on arabs and a mighty presence in the region. A pacified Irak and a pacified middle east is not good for Israel, it will loosen its ties with the US and with it the influence, the money and as a collateral, the illegal sale of weapons from which Israel makes huge profits.
Third, Iran has an interest in a civil war in Irak. It reinforces its role as the main supplier of oil in the region and give Iran the possibility of interfering in Irak's internal affairs in the name of the protection of its shiites.

As long as these main players have interest in a civil war in Irak, don't ask who benefits, just ask when the next wave of violence which will push Irak further in a permanent civil war will happen.
I lived the civil war in Lebanon, a war that lasted more than 15 years, left many wounds and shattered society and economy, a war whose impact is still felt in every political move in Lebanon, a war from which Lebanon may never really recover. I can tell you thet all conditions are now met in Irak for a Lebanese like civil war. The only thing that may help stop it is a dictatorship or an Iranian protectorate!

Brace yourself !

No comments:

Since March 29th 2006