Lebanon: Where Living Dangerously Has No End

From Loubnan Ya Loubnan (in French), an exstensive analysis of the present political situation in Lebanon where Washington, pressed by Jumblatt who was recently visiting, is trying to block a demand by Hezbollah and the Party of Michel Aoun for a reshuffle of the present government by including ministers from Aoun's party. The author of the article, who is French, declared at some point that he is worried for the security of his Lebanese friends. I heard also the same son-de-cloche from Rami Khoury, editor at large of the Lebanese Daily Star, speaking this evening on Radio Canada's 'As It Happens'. Khoury added that one has to be honest when speaking of foreign interference in Lebanon. While Washington is accusing Syria and Iran of plotting to destabilise the Sanyura government, it is at the same time backing actively Hezbollah's and Aoun's opponents. He said that Hezbollah's demands for a reshuffle of the Sanyura government have legitimacy within a democratic process. Hezbollah, who is trying to transform its military victory into a political one, along with Aoun's movement, the most popular among Christians, should have their say in the composition of the government which does not actually represent exactly and accurately the people of Lebanon and the political forces in presence and that it is up to Lebanese to resolve their conflicts on that matter without foreign intervention. Khoury was pointing fingers as much at the US intervention as at that alleged by the US and attributed to Syria and Iran.

Mr. Khoury pointed out also that the demand for a government reshuffle from Aoun and Hezbollah has aspects related to internal Lebanese politics and governance and that it is unfortunate that external countries like the US block such a process in Lebanon. Most of the actual members of the Sanyura government form a Kleptocracy, according to Aoun, or worse, a Mafiocracy, according to Loubnan Ya Loubnan.

Nabih Berri, president of the parliament, who is siding with Hezbollah and Aoun, has convened a meeting for the members of the government to discuss the actual situation. This meeting is felt on the internal political scene as a deadline before tensions translate into real hostility. It was adjourned recently for a lack of Quorum but will convene anytime from now. In the meantime, a Bras-de-fer has started between the government and Hezbollah about the popular mobilisation which Hezbollah is counting on to put pressure on the government and which seem set to be criminalised by the government as illegal uprising. The Lebanese army will be probably mobilised against its own citizens. Loubnan Ya Loubnan notes that this army who didn't fire one shot on Israeli soldiers will probably have to fire at Lebanese citizens. Jumblatt's visit to the US is also thought to have included a demand for an extension of the UNIFIL role in Lebanon as to be able to intervene in consolidating the actual government.

I am worried for Lebanon once again.


Ibn Kafka said...

As'ad Abu Khalil ponders whether Berry will leave the Hizb ship for the warmth (?) of Feltman's and Emié's embrace. And you might also want to note that the leader of France's main opposition party, the Parti socialiste, has gone to Beyrouth clamouring his alliance with Walid Jumblatt, chiefly on account of the latter being his father's son. So there's definitely a lot to worry about...

Sophia said...

Ibn kafka,

la declaration de Hollande ne m'inquiète pas plus que cela. Hollande's declaration should be placed in the internal political context in France. The mother of his children, Ségolène, will be competing with Sarko who, as it seems, has the backing of Saudis and neo-cons.
Hollande et Ségolène essaient donc de manger au même ratelier que Sarko.

Since March 29th 2006