Bashar El Assad and Legitimacy, Updated

One must recognise that Bashar El Assad is still, after four months of unrest, hugely popular in Syria. This is a fact, not an Al-Jazeera fabricated story. This is the fourth pro regime rally in Syria since March. The Syrian revolution 2011 has never been able to rally as much.

If one adds to this three other facts:

1. The hijacking of the Syrian Revolution 2011 by USrael and the Muslim Brotherhood;
2. The first USrael influence free government in Lebanon since years. The Lebanese government has been chosen by a majority of Lebanese who want to break free from USrael's influence and who wouldn't certainly like to see this influence resurrect in Syria with the toppling of the Assad regime;
3. The Syrian Revolution 2011 inability to present a united front against the Assad regime;

It is unlikely that we will see any change in the balance of support for the regime and the revolution 2011, from internal and external actors, any time soon. The balance might even shift in favour of the regime.

It is fair to say that right now Bashar El Assad still has the legitimacy of the majority of Syrians and there is no reason for this fact to change anytime soon. Also, people who are trumpeting a change in the fortunes of the regime through the faltering of the Syrian economy are undermining their own chances of success by overlooking the fact that putting extreme pressure on the Syrian economy can also eliminate the possibility of a successful and peaceful transition of power through the collapse of Syrian institutions and therefore make less likely a change in the current support for the regime from China and Russia which is based on the refusal of an Iraq like upheaval in Syria.

But the most important fact that is overlooked right now is, ironically, the support for the Assad regime in Lebanon across all sects, a support made possible by the overt enmity of March 14 toward Bashar El Assad and the little popularity this movement has right now in Lebanon (note that the recent support for the 'Syrian people' from Hariri masks a long history of abuse and killing of Syrian workers by Hariri's and March 14th militia in Lebanon).

UPDATE:

ALASTAIR CROOKE: Unfolding the Syrian paradox

Obama's strategic failure in Syria

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US and UK Meet Syrian Muslim Brotherhood Representative In London

From Angry Arab.

Links about Al Bayanouni and the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood:

The Muslim Brotherhood: the trojan horse of the syrian revolution. (article in Arabic)

The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood between piety and lethal errors. (article in Arabic)

The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood by Gary Gambill (article in English).

Al Bayanouni speaking on the Syrian regime, Iran and Israel.

As of late, sunni extremism has become respectable to USrael and the west in general. Some links:

Israel and Saudi Arabia are natural allies.

Wikileaks: Hariri to the US: Syrian Muslim Brotherhood not extremist and they want peace with Israel

Israel wants a committment from the US to protect the Saudi regime.

UK and US want to make peace with the Taliban.

Al Bayanouni improves on Alawi question!!!! (but this was the context of the aftermath of the July 2006 war in Lebanon when everybody thought that Hezbollah was so weak and so unpopular that the Syrian regime was ready for compromise...

The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood new leadership: assessment of the Bayanouni years.

General information about the brotherhood and its ideology.