Political assassinations in Lebanon and the role of Israel

I was at the hospital today doing different medical examinations. One of the specialists I saw, a doctor in his late sixties, started the medical interview by asking me if I was Lebanese. When I said yes he asked me what I thought of the latest political assassination, I said that I was sad for the people who are killed, their families and for my country. Then the medical exam proper went on. There was a medical student in the room. After the exam, it was my turn to ask the doctor if he was Lebanese, he said that he was Iranian and has been living in Canada for the last 45 years. At this point, the student said she was Lebanese, a small conversation followed on ME politics and the latest assassination in Lebanon. The three of us agreed that the tensions in this region can be attrubuted greatly to the desire of Israel to have free hands in the region and to the unconditional support of the US.

Both the doctor and the student were great profesionnals. I really felt that I was taken care of in a very smart and knowledgeable way. After I left the hospital, it occured to me that all the hype that is made of the political assassinations in Lebanon by some Lebanese factions and their foreign counterparts is not credible. My personal feeling is that the politcal assassinations in lebanon now are a struggle between foreign powers who have interest in the region in a wider regional game meant to ensure more submission and more USrael friendly governments and countries, a struggle served sadly by Lebanese factions. There are two axes in this struggle: US-Israel-Saudi Arabia against Iran-Syria-Hezbollah. If Syria and the US start talking, the axes are likely to collapse or at least to weaken. So what is happening in my opinion is that Israel is pushing hard to maintain this dichotomy. Otherwise, it will have to engage in talks with Syria and this means changing radically its present political orientation and may be entering forced peace talks with the Palestinians as well. There are also tensions within the US administration as to whether start talks with Syria with the recent departure of Rumsfeld and the pressure on the Bush administration to come up with some positive foreign policy gains for the republicans before 2008. In this scheme, Syria has everything to gain from staying calm. The main charcateristic of the Syrian regime, as other authoritarian regimes, is its ability toward self preservation against all odds and far from any ideological committment. This regime prevented a victory of the progressive forces in Lebanon over Christian factions and helped de facto christians escape a defeat during the civil war because it had interests in doing so. This regime fought savagely the sunni majority in Syria, imprisoned opponents, opposed Saddam Hussein during the first Gulf war, and even fought the Palestinians inside its territory and imposed upon them a strict obediance and a strict control. All this in the name of self preservation. The Syrian regime is ready for peace, is ready for talks and has been screaming this even before the death of Assad father. There is actually a small window of opportunity for the Syrian regime to end its present political status as an outcast on the international and regional scenes, which become even more marginalised and neutralised after it evacuted its army from lebanon in 2005. This window of opportunity was apparent in the recent statements of Blair and some leaders in the EU and there is a hesitation in the US as to whether start talks with Syria. The assassination of Pierre Gemmayel should be analysed within this context which is the maintaining and the reinforcement of the two opposing axes in the ME in order to keep the tensions increasing in this region and prevent the international community from asking Israel to be accountable while forcing it into peace talks.


After all didn't Israel invent political assassinations and don't they bragg about it whenever given the occasion and didn't their supreme court approved the process ? And didn't Israel capitalised in the past on the anger of the Gemmayel's folllowers to exterminate Palestinians in Sabra and Chatila ? And why is it only Syria who is accused by the March 14th movement and the Sanyura government who has been weak surviving merely on a IV since Israel's latest agression on Lebanon and has been ever since its formation " primarily fuelled by the assassination of its leaders," said Amal Saad Ghorayeb of Beirut's Carnegie Middle East Centre ?

'' James Steinberg, who was a deputy national security adviser to President Bill Clinton, said that Syria was only one possible suspect in a region where politics amounts to "wheels within wheels within wheels."

Charles Harb goes a step further:in 'Whoever pulled the trigger, Syria's allies are the losers'

I also spoke with members of my family in Lebanon. They are tired, they are distrustful of their politicians and they feel let down. I can assure Zionists, Lebanese are not going to fight each other, so Israel and its Lebanese allies will have to keep killing Lebanese politicians in order to maintain the tensions in the region. And I hope that some day we wil be able to document this criminal behaviour and the serial killers responsible for it.

Pierre Gemmayyel is the child of the Lebanese civil war. He was three when it started and died while some are guessing if it is not going to restart all over again. Lebanon deserves better than dubious political alliances serving foreign appetite, it deserves peace, it deserves love and it deserves the joie de vivre I knew there when I was a child.
This is not the Lebanon that should have emerged from the civil war. This is not the Lebanon that longed for peace and stability after a 15 year civil war. This is not the Lebanon of ordinary people and real citizens. This is the Lebanon of a corrupt and criminal political elite. It is time to end this criminal farce !

Prominent Lebanese blogger Moussa Bashir has two questions about the assassination of Pierre Gemmayel

Then we have the great predictors for these assassinations (why the hell if they predict don't they protect ?) :

Ms Rice: Note that she was not even able to predict 9/11 from a Memo titled 'Bin Laden determined to attack inside the US' but she was able to predict this one.

Geagea predicts assassinations of Lebanon ministers. Can he predict his own ? That would be helpful at least...

Also I keep bumping on this posthumous site of the Late Elie Hobeika (remember, he was scheduled to testify to a Belgian court about Sharon's direct role in the Sabra and Chatila massacres). Enjoy !

Other analyses:

Johnathan Cook

Dilip Hiro on Who did it ? To which the Zionist answers: ''thezionist Comment No. 305726 November 22 19:42GBR
Lebanon deserve freedom. Lebanese prime minister owe it to his people to sign peace with Israel. The people of Israel and the Jewish people get along very well with the Lebanese people. Hizbollah is their cancer. Making Lebanon stable and free from foreign paid mercenary is the key to peace more solving the problem between Israel and the Palestinian.
One funny thing with zionists is that they want to be aknowledged for their intelligence and merit and so most of the time they make half confessions.

Angry Arab, a precious source on lebanon and the ME, on the Gemmayel family.

Restraint in mourning Lebanese style: his son not yet in the grave, Amin Gemmayel is already calling for the toppling of the actual president.

And I would like to cite here the excellent article in French from blogger Nidal in Loubnan Ya Loubnan 'Au Liban, une mafiocratie contre son peuple'


Dr Victorino de la Vega said...

Great post.

It's true the Canookie health care system is top notch- did a checkup at Mtl's Royal Vic once and was real impressed by the quality of their staff. Anyhoo, I hope it's nothing serious: take care of yourself and don't hesitate to take a few days off work/blogging.

Re: Pierre Gemayel. The man was a leader of The Phalange (“Al Kataeb” in Arabic), an overtly Fascist Christian group modeled after Franco’s Hispanic version of the Nazi Party called El Movimiento Falangista: not really the standard textbook definition of a “democrat”… even by the Middle-East’s notoriously low standards!

Unfortunately, the other members of Lebanon’s corrupt coalition government aren’t much better: apart from the neo-Nazis mentioned earlier, the other pillar of that government is made of a shady group of pro-Saudi Islamist technocrats called The Future Movement- a paradoxical appellation for a party advocating the strict application of laws dating from the 7th century AD...

Islamic terrorists and Christian neo-Nazis: these are the people Bush and Olmert rely on to advance the cause of freedom in Lebanon.

Who said the Neocons aren’t always “intellectually honest”?

Sophia said...


Thanks for your concern. Nothing worrying, just an extensive check-up. I agree with you on the health system here only if you succeed in getting an appointment. I prefer however the french one for the human contact.

As for Mr. Gemmayel, no matter what the family did or did not do, I am sad, he seemed to be a happy young man and this is a waste. Political assassinations during the civil war, however savage and criminal, still different from political assassinations during peace. I hope that the assassins will be uncovered and brought to justice but I am very skeptical of the will of the Lebanese political elite to dig the truth away from the objective of short term political gain...

Anonymous said...

Sophia, great post as usual.

Lebanon is again a battlefield for the region's political players.

The Lebanese fuedal lords are unable to pursue independent or national goals and I fear that they will be unable to control their supporters. God help us.

You are right to put this assassination in the context the struggle taking place in Washington regarding the approach to Syria and Iran in the Republican bid to salvage something of Bush's policy in Iraq.

The Israelis and the Neocons are nervous and are trying to prempt any policy change in the ME. The Israelis are anxious about any deal with Iran and its proxies that may prevent any action against what it describes as its "existential threat".

The next two years are going to be eventful and I fear for Lebanon -both politically and economically.


Sophia said...


Long time I didn't hear from you. Hope everything is well. Thanks for the comment.

Shaykhspeara Sha'ira said...

It seems highly unlikely Syria had anything to do with it. They have NOTHING to gain from doing it, nothing at all. Only one country may have somehting to gain from syria and lebanon fighting each other...

Anonymous said...

Thanks sophia . Glad to be back.

I took a long overdue vacation with my daughters where we visited family and attended a wedding.

I followed your posts occassionally. The dial up connection and my vacation forced me to avoid the net as much as possible.


Ivor Liss said...

This is my first visit to your site thanks to the referal from Candide's Notebook.I enjoyed reading your article.
I heard the Syrian Ambassador on BBC two nights ago, and he argued quite logically that these assasinations in Lebanon always come on the eve of some possible diplomatic breakthrough that would benefit Syria.
At that moment, I too wondered who would benefit from these destabalising events.....duh!...Israel.

Sophia said...

Thanks Ivor for the visit and the comment.

Since March 29th 2006